Whether the Episcopal Church will have enough excellent clergy to lead it in the next 25 years is dependent on many factors.

Today in some areas there is a “relative” shortage—that is a mismatch of priests seeking positions and the expectations of the churches employing them. The “relative shortage” could turn into an absolute shortage if the number of ordinations declines, the trend of ordaining older persons continues, and significant numbers of seminary graduates choose non-parish ministry while the number of active clergy retiring reaches its peak between now and 2012.

Clergy Retirements

With 50 percent of active clergy in the Episcopal Church over the age of 54, the number of retirements through 2012 could have a major effect on the supply of priests to local dioceses. In the past three years, clergy have retired sooner than expected. It is too early to tell if this is a trend, but it does point to the importance of having a clergy pool that is diversified in age.

In 2005, the number of all clergy who retired (both parish and non-parish) was 350 while the number of ordinations for parishes was 358. The difference in these two numbers was much greater in 2004 when the number of all clergy who retired (both parish and non-parish) was 398 while the number of ordinations for parishes was 324. That is, 22 percent  more retired than were ordained. In 2003, retirements had exceeded ordinations by only 6 percent, or 342 to 324.

Note: The numbers for both of these years compare the number of parish and non-parish clergy retiring to clergy only in parishes. New data from the Church Pension Group comparing clergy only in parishes who retired with ordinations will reduce these differences, but the overall trend should be supported.

In a 2003 report by the Church Pension Group, the expected number of clergy retirements was 230 for 2005. Actual retirements were 360, down from 2004, when 398 retired but more than predicted in the 2003 report. That same report forecasted a peak in retirements of 325 in 2012. Whether the higher number of retirements than expected signifies a trend of clergy retiring earlier or whether special circumstances led to this spike in retirements will take several years to assess.

However, the combination of more clergy retiring than being ordained and the continuing practice of ordaining older persons creates a reason for concern. About 75 percent of active clergy are over the age of 48 and 93 percent are over the age of 40.

Clergy nearing retirement age are concentrated in the smaller parishes. Based on 2004 figures, nearly 60 percent of the clergy who are over age 60 serve smaller Episcopal churches, family size (0-75) and pastoral size (76-140). These smaller parishes, in fact, make up the largest number of Episcopal churches. Because of smaller budgets and the increased debt load of seminarians, smaller churches will find it increasingly difficult to attract and retain qualified, full-time clergy.